Tommy Paul vs Jannik Sinner Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Sinner's second serve win rate over the past six months stands at 41.58%, which is lower compared to Paul's 45.16%. How important is this stat in predicting the match outcome? It's quite crucial, as there's a high correlation with match prediction accuracy.
• Regarding return games, Sinner has won 38.86% of points on his opponent's second serve, while Paul has performed better, winning 46.86%. The first serve return stats further favor Paul at 25.14% over Sinner's 22.46%, which indicates Paul's edge in this area.
• In pressure situations, Sinner has a slight advantage, saving 54.01% of breakpoints against him, compared to Paul's 51.04%. This small difference could turn crucial during in-game betting.
• Over the last year, Sinner has a substantially higher win rate of 93.33%, with a record of 56 wins to 4 losses, while Paul follows with a 71.64% win rate, holding a 48-19 record. This suggests Sinner's stronger overall performance.
• Sinner excels on indoor hard courts with an 80% win rate, whereas Paul shows his best at 67% on grass courts. Notably, Paul's worst surface is also indoor hard, where he wins 63% of the time, potentially giving Sinner an edge.
• Sinner has mostly competed at the Grand Slam level over the past year, winning 92% of those matches, while Paul has played mainly on the Main tour, winning 76%. The difference in experience at higher levels might favor Sinner.
• The direct head-to-head record tilts towards Sinner, leading 3-1 overall, and having won 8 out of 11 sets played.
• Both players have split deciding sets in the past two occasions, which could be pivotal if this match goes the distance.
• In tiebreaks, Sinner edges Paul, winning three out of four, indicating resilience in critical phases.
• Sinner has faced tougher competition, with his opponents averaging a ranking of 42.05, compared to Paul's average opponent rank of 65.51.
• Both players have similar success rates in deciding sets across all matches, with Sinner at 67% and Paul slightly lower at 65%.
• Paul has a superior recent break point conversion rate of 31.65%, while Sinner converts 24.49%, which might give Paul an advantage during break point opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (May 15, 2025, UTC):

While both players exhibit impressive skills, distinct differences in their recent performances and head-to-head statistics suggest an edge for one of them.

Sinner showcases superior overall match performances, particularly on indoor hard courts, which is crucial given the match type. Though Paul's second serve and breakpoint conversion rates are slightly higher, Sinner's clutch performances in tiebreaks and overall win percentage at higher-level tournaments cannot be ignored.

Sinner's extensive experience against higher-ranked opponents and superior win rate over the last year underscore his potential advantage. Therefore, barring any significant upsets, Sinner is favored to win this encounter.